{"id":9402,"date":"2026-10-19T14:35:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T12:35:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/meteo-sain-bel.fr\/wp\/blog\/le-19-octobre-2026-a-12h35-grele-et-risque-de-tornade-le-sud-est-sous-surveillance\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T14:35:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T12:35:26","slug":"le-19-octobre-2026-a-12h35-grele-et-risque-de-tornade-le-sud-est-sous-surveillance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/meteo-sain-bel.fr\/wp\/blog\/le-19-octobre-2026-a-12h35-grele-et-risque-de-tornade-le-sud-est-sous-surveillance\/","title":{"rendered":"le 19 octobre 2026 \u00e0 12h35  Gr\u00eale et risque de tornade : le Sud-Est sous surveillance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>M\u00e9t\u00e9o\u00a0 Republi\u00e9 via Innoreader <a href=\"https:\/\/www.meteo-paris.com\/actualites\/grele-et-risque-de-tornade-le-sud-est-sous-surveillance\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"feedzy-rss-link-icon\">Lire la Suite<\/a><\/p>\n<h1><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.meteo-paris.com\/uploads\/actu\/trombe-marine-google-discover.jpg\" \/><\/h1>\n<h1>Gr\u00ealons, puissantes rafales et risque de tornade : les secteurs \u00e0 surveiller dans le Sud-Est<\/h1>\n<p><strong>De violents orages menacent une partie du pourtour m\u00e9diterran\u00e9en entre ce lundi 19 octobre et mardi 20 octobre. Au-del\u00e0 des pluies intenses, des chutes de gr\u00eale, de fortes rafales et des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes tourbillonnaires sont possibles. L\u2019H\u00e9rault, le Gard et l\u2019ouest des Bouches-du-Rh\u00f4ne concentrent les principales inqui\u00e9tudes pour la soir\u00e9e et la nuit prochaine.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Une aggravation attendue cet apr\u00e8s-midi et surtout ce soir<\/h2>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Le nouvel \u00e9pisode m\u00e9diterran\u00e9en ne se r\u00e9sume pas aux cumuls de pluie. Des orages parfois organis\u00e9s peuvent aussi provoquer des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes soudains, sur des secteurs tr\u00e8s limit\u00e9s. Une commune pourra conna\u00eetre de fortes pr\u00e9cipitations tandis qu\u2019une autre, situ\u00e9e \u00e0 quelques kilom\u00e8tres, subira une rafale brutale ou une averse de gr\u00eale. Cette diversit\u00e9 des risques impose une surveillance attentive jusqu\u2019\u00e0 mardi.<\/p>\n<p>Ce lundi, l\u2019activit\u00e9 orageuse doit se renforcer progressivement autour du golfe du Lion. Le\u00a0<strong>risque d\u2019orages forts atteint le niveau 3 sur 5 entre l\u2019H\u00e9rault, le Gard et les Bouches-du-Rh\u00f4ne<\/strong>. L\u2019aggravation est particuli\u00e8rement attendue en soir\u00e9e et durant la nuit de lundi \u00e0 mardi, avec des cellules susceptibles de se renouveler sur les m\u00eames zones.<\/p>\n<p>Le Gard, la Loz\u00e8re et l\u2019H\u00e9rault sont \u00e9galement plac\u00e9s en vigilance orange pour orages et pluie-inondation. <strong>Le littoral et les plaines sont concern\u00e9s, pas uniquement les C\u00e9vennes.<\/strong> Les secteurs de Montpellier, de N\u00eemes, de la Camargue et leurs environs doivent suivre l\u2019\u00e9volution, sans que toutes ces villes soient n\u00e9cessairement frapp\u00e9es par les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes les plus violents.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00a0<\/h2>\n<h2>\u00a0<\/h2>\n<h2>Des gr\u00ealons de 4 cm possibles, avec un potentiel plus marqu\u00e9 en mer<\/h2>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Les simulations du mod\u00e8le suisse font appara\u00eetre un potentiel de gr\u00eale sur la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e nord-occidentale, notamment au large du Languedoc et de la Provence. Certaines plages color\u00e9es correspondent \u00e0 des <strong>diam\u00e8tres potentiels de 3 \u00e0 4 cm<\/strong>. Elles signalent un environnement favorable \u00e0 la croissance des gr\u00ealons dans les orages les plus vigoureux, principalement au-dessus de la mer.<\/p>\n<p>Il faut toutefois distinguer cette simulation d\u2019une pr\u00e9vision de gr\u00eale au sol. Le mod\u00e8le ne permet pas d\u2019annoncer des gr\u00ealons d\u2019une taille pr\u00e9cise dans une commune donn\u00e9e. Les noyaux les plus intenses restent largement maritimes \u00e0 plusieurs \u00e9ch\u00e9ances. Des chutes localis\u00e9es sont n\u00e9anmoins possibles \u00e0 terre si des cellules suffisamment actives atteignent le littoral puis les plaines. Le risque de d\u00e9g\u00e2ts d\u00e9pendra de leur trajectoire.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.meteo-paris.com\/uploads\/actu\/grele%20lundi%20soir.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Potentiel de taille des gr\u00ealons lundi \u00e0 20 h, heure fran\u00e7aise. Les valeurs les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es sont surtout en mer : elles ne constituent pas des diam\u00e8tres garantis \u00e0 terre. Source : mod\u00e8le Swiss HD 4\u00d74, run du 19 octobre \u00e0 6 UTC, via Meteologix.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>\u00a0<\/h2>\n<h2>\u00a0<\/h2>\n<h2>Pourquoi un risque de tornade est-il envisag\u00e9 ?<\/h2>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>La configuration associe un apport d\u2019air m\u00e9diterran\u00e9en humide \u00e0 un courant rapide en altitude. Les vents changent de vitesse et parfois de direction avec la hauteur : c\u2019est le cisaillement. Lorsque cette organisation des vents se combine \u00e0 une instabilit\u00e9 suffisante, certains orages peuvent acqu\u00e9rir une rotation. Cela peut favoriser des structures plus durables et, dans certaines circonstances, un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne tourbillonnaire pr\u00e8s du sol.<\/p>\n<p>Le bulletin sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9 de Keraunos mentionne explicitement un <strong>risque de trombes marines, voire de tornades, notamment \u00e0 proximit\u00e9 du littoral entre l\u2019H\u00e9rault et les Bouches-du-Rh\u00f4ne<\/strong>. Ce sc\u00e9nario m\u00e9rite donc d\u2019\u00eatre signal\u00e9. Il reste cependant localis\u00e9 et conditionnel : la pr\u00e9sence de param\u00e8tres favorables ne signifie pas qu\u2019une tornade se formera, encore moins qu\u2019elle traversera une ville. Sa localisation ne peut \u00eatre d\u00e9termin\u00e9e maintenant.<\/p>\n<p>La distinction entre trombe et tornade tient notamment \u00e0 la surface sur laquelle le tourbillon se d\u00e9veloppe. Une trombe \u00e9volue au-dessus de l\u2019eau ; un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne touchant terre est qualifi\u00e9 de tornade. Pour les habitants, le danger peut surtout prendre la forme d\u2019une d\u00e9gradation extr\u00eamement rapide, avec des objets projet\u00e9s, des branches arrach\u00e9es ou des dommages tr\u00e8s concentr\u00e9s. Toutes les rafales destructrices ne sont toutefois pas des tornades.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.meteo-paris.com\/uploads\/actu\/orages%20nuit%20de%20lundi%20a%20mardi.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Activit\u00e9 \u00e9lectrique simul\u00e9e mardi 20 octobre \u00e0 3 h, heure fran\u00e7aise. La carte renseigne le potentiel orageux, sans localiser une future tornade. Source : ECMWF, run du 19 octobre \u00e0 0 UTC, via Meteociel.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Des rafales dangereuses, m\u00eame sans tourbillon<\/h2>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Les orages pourront \u00e9galement produire des bourrasques sans rotation. Les bulletins \u00e9voquent des rafales de l\u2019ordre de <strong>60 \u00e0 80 km\/h, avec des pointes sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 100\u00a0 km\/h possibles<\/strong>. Une telle acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration peut suffire \u00e0 faire tomber des branches ou d\u00e9placer du mobilier ext\u00e9rieur. Sur les routes, elle peut surprendre les conducteurs, particuli\u00e8rement lorsque la visibilit\u00e9 chute sous les pr\u00e9cipitations.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.meteo-paris.com\/actualites\/depression-adam-les-regions-les-plus-exposees\">Les pluies intenses<\/a> compliqueront encore la situation. Des orages peu mobiles peuvent provoquer des ruissellements rapides dans les plaines et les agglom\u00e9rations. La gr\u00eale peut localement encombrer les \u00e9vacuations d\u2019eau. L\u2019accumulation de ces ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes, parfois en pleine nuit, justifie de limiter les d\u00e9placements pendant les passages les plus actifs et de ne jamais s\u2019engager sur une chauss\u00e9e inond\u00e9e, m\u00eame sur un trajet habituel.<\/p>\n<h2><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.meteo-paris.com\/uploads\/actu\/aromehd-52-50-4.png\" \/><\/h2>\n<p><em>Rafales de vent maximales pr\u00e9vues d&#8217;ici la nuit de mardi \u00e0 mercredi &#8211; Ar\u00f4me<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Mardi, la menace se d\u00e9placera vers la Provence et la Corse<\/h2>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Au cours de mardi, le syst\u00e8me doit progresser vers l\u2019est, avec une <strong>extension du risque orageux \u00e0 la Provence et \u00e0 la Corse<\/strong>. La chronologie pr\u00e9cise et l\u2019intensit\u00e9 varieront selon les secteurs. Les cartes sugg\u00e8rent encore un potentiel de gr\u00eale en M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e, mais elles ne permettent pas de reporter automatiquement sur les terres les valeurs simul\u00e9es au large. Le suivi radar et les bulletins actualis\u00e9s seront d\u00e9terminants.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.meteo-paris.com\/uploads\/actu\/xx_model-en-345-0_modswisseu_2026101906_28_15_1355.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Potentiel de taille des gr\u00ealons mardi 20 octobre \u00e0 12 h, heure fran\u00e7aise. Source : mod\u00e8le Swiss HD 4\u00d74, run du 19 octobre \u00e0 6 UTC, via Meteologix.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Avant l\u2019arriv\u00e9e des orages, rentrez les objets l\u00e9gers et mettez les v\u00e9hicules \u00e0 l\u2019abri si cela reste possible sans vous exposer. Pendant leur passage, restez dans un b\u00e2timent solide, loin des fen\u00eatres. \u00c9vitez les promenades sur le littoral pour observer les cellules ou les trombes. Consultez enfin la vigilance de M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France : les secteurs concern\u00e9s et les niveaux d\u2019alerte peuvent \u00e9voluer rapidement.<\/p>\n<p>Cette prudence vaut aussi pour les activit\u00e9s nautiques : un orage encore \u00e9loign\u00e9 du rivage peut d\u00e9j\u00e0 rendre les conditions de navigation dangereuses.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A lire \u00e9galement &gt;&gt;&gt;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.meteo-paris.com\/actualites\/500-mm-de-pluie-d-ici-mardi-soir-dans-les-cevennes\">Jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 trois mois de pluie pr\u00e9vus en une journ\u00e9e dans le Sud-est<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Auteur : <a href=\"http:\/\/https\/\/www.meteo-paris.com\/guillaume-sechet\">Guillaume S\u00e9chet &gt;&gt;&gt;<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>M\u00e9t\u00e9o\u00a0 Republi\u00e9 via Innoreader Lire la Suite Gr\u00ealons, puissantes rafales et risque de tornade : les secteurs \u00e0 surveiller dans le Sud-Est De violents orages [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9403,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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