{"id":9152,"date":"2026-09-19T10:28:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T08:28:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/meteo-sain-bel.fr\/wp\/blog\/le-19-septembre-2026-a-8h28-la-pluie-va-encore-se-faire-attendre-voici-quand-la-situation-pourrait-changer\/"},"modified":"2026-09-19T10:28:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T08:28:07","slug":"le-19-septembre-2026-a-8h28-la-pluie-va-encore-se-faire-attendre-voici-quand-la-situation-pourrait-changer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/meteo-sain-bel.fr\/wp\/blog\/le-19-septembre-2026-a-8h28-la-pluie-va-encore-se-faire-attendre-voici-quand-la-situation-pourrait-changer\/","title":{"rendered":"le 19 septembre 2026 \u00e0 8h28 La pluie va encore se faire attendre : voici quand la situation pourrait changer"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u00e9t\u00e9o\u00a0 Republi\u00e9 via Innoreader Lire la Suite<\/a><\/p>\n

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Un nouveau blocage anticyclonique se met en place sur la France avec le d\u00e9but d’une \u00e9ni\u00e8me p\u00e9riode tr\u00e8s s\u00e8che et chaude. Quand la tendance est-elle susceptible de s’inverser avec le retour de pr\u00e9cipitations efficaces sur le pays ?<\/p>\n

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S\u00e9cheresse : faudra-t-il attendre octobre pour retrouver de vraies pluies ?<\/h2>\n

Un nouveau blocage anticyclonique est en train de se mettre en place sur le proche-Atlantique. Il va conduire \u00e0 un r\u00e9chauffement de la masse d’air au cours de ce week-end des 19 et 20 septembre avec le retour d’une chaleur estivale sur les deux tiers sud de la France.<\/p>\n

La semaine prochaine, une cellule anticyclonique tr\u00e8s puissante va s’installer sur l’ouest de l’Europe. Comme \u00e0 de multiples reprises depuis la fin mai, c’est en France que l’anomalie de hauts g\u00e9opotentiels sera la plus importante entre le 21 et le 27 septembre 2026.<\/p>\n

Par cons\u00e9quent, les d\u00e9pressions seront rejet\u00e9es sur le nord de l’Atlantique et leur influence sera nulle en France, o\u00f9 la semaine prochaine prendra des airs d’\u00e9t\u00e9. Rappelons que nous basculerons officiellement dans l’automne calendaire, qui d\u00e9bute le mercredi 23 septembre 2026.<\/p>\n

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Blocage anticyclone sur l’ouest de l’Europe en semaine du 21 au 27 septembre 2026<\/strong><\/em> – tropicaltidbits.com<\/p>\n

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Ainsi, la semaine du 21 au 27 septembre 2026 promet d’\u00eatre v\u00e9ritablement estivale sur la France. Sous l’influence de ce puissant blocage anticyclonique, on s’attend \u00e0 une succession de journ\u00e9es ensoleill\u00e9es et anormalement chaudes pour la saison.<\/p>\n

Cela va \u00e9videmment avoir une incidence majeure sur la pluviom\u00e9trie, qui s’annonce nulle sur la quasi-totalit\u00e9 du territoire au cours des 7 jours de la semaine. Tous les mod\u00e8les s’accordent sur une semaine particuli\u00e8rement calme et s\u00e8che sur l’hexagone.<\/p>\n

La s\u00e9cheresse va donc encore s’accentuer, alors qu’elle est d\u00e9j\u00e0 record dans de nombreuses r\u00e9gions du pays. Tous les ingr\u00e9dients seront r\u00e9unis avec une absence totale de pluie, un ensoleillement souvent maximal et des temp\u00e9ratures anormalement chaudes.<\/p>\n

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Mod\u00e9lisation de l’anomalie pluviom\u00e9trique en semaine du 21 au 27 septembre 2026 <\/strong><\/em>– ECMWF<\/p>\n

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Un changement progressif au cours du mois d’octobre ?<\/h2>\n

Un d\u00e9but de changement pourrait commencer \u00e0 se dessiner pour le passage du mois de septembre au mois d’octobre. Pour la semaine suivante (du 28 septembre au 4 octobre 2026), les tendances d\u00e9calent l’anomalie s\u00e8che vers le centre et le nord-est du continent europ\u00e9en.<\/p>\n

Cette semaine pourrait marquer le retour d’une m\u00e9t\u00e9o plus d\u00e9pressionnaire et humide sur l’ensemble des \u00celes Britanniques. Ainsi, il est probable que certains fronts parviennent \u00e0 d\u00e9border sur la France, notamment sur les r\u00e9gions bordant la Manche et l’Atlantique.<\/p>\n

Cette semaine du 28 septembre au 4 octobre 2026 resterait tout de m\u00eame plus s\u00e8che que la normale en France, notamment dans les r\u00e9gions de l’est o\u00f9 l’influence de l’anticyclone sur l’Europe centrale serait encore assez nette, r\u00e9duisant nettement les chances de pluies dignes de ce nom.<\/p>\n

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Mod\u00e9lisation de l’anomalie pluviom\u00e9trique en semaine du 28 septembre au 4 octobre 2026 <\/strong><\/em>– ECMWF<\/p>\n

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Il faudrait attendre la semaine du 5 au 11 octobre 2026 pour voir les hautes pressions continentales faiblir. En effet, les tendances \u00e0 long terme misent sur une anomalie s\u00e8che se r\u00e9sorbant sur l’Europe centrale, m\u00eame si cela ne signifierait pas pour autant un retour d’un contexte d\u00e9pressionnaire.<\/p>\n

Nous pourrions assister \u00e0 une semaine de transition, au cours de laquelle aucune anomalie franche ne se d\u00e9gage \u00e0 l’heure actuelle. Quelques fronts pourraient donc passer sur la France, m\u00eame si le sc\u00e9nario majoritaire ne va pas dans le sens d’un retour d’une forte humidit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Notons tout de m\u00eame que le mod\u00e8le europ\u00e9en envisage le d\u00e9veloppement d’une instabilit\u00e9 plus nette sur le bassin m\u00e9diterran\u00e9en avec des pluies qui pourraient potentiellement s’\u00e9tendre jusqu’aux r\u00e9gions m\u00e9diterran\u00e9ennes fran\u00e7aises, sous un flux qui pourrait s’orienter \u00e0 l’est.<\/p>\n

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Mod\u00e9lisation de l’anomalie pluviom\u00e9trique en semaine du 5 au 11 octobre 2026 <\/strong><\/em>– ECMWF<\/p>\n

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Pour l’heure, il est trop t\u00f4t pour dater un potentiel retour d’une m\u00e9t\u00e9o d\u00e9pressionnaire et pluvieuse sur la France. Cette hypoth\u00e8se semble peu probable jusqu’en premi\u00e8re d\u00e9cade d’octobre. Les mod\u00e9lisations \u00e0 plus long terme envisagent une humidit\u00e9 possiblement plus importante fin octobre et surtout au mois de novembre mais l’\u00e9ch\u00e9ance lointaine incite \u00e0 la prudence.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u00c0 lire \u00e9galement <\/strong>:<\/p>\n

>>>\u00a0Apr\u00e8s des mois de s\u00e9cheresse, le temps pourrait radicalement changer cet automne<\/a><\/p>\n

>>>\u00a0S\u00e9cheresse 2026 : est-elle la pire jamais observ\u00e9e en France ?<\/a><\/p>\n

>>> Notre chronique sur les \u00e9v\u00e8nements climatiques en France, depuis 1850<\/a><\/p>\n

>>> Notre bulletin m\u00e9t\u00e9o r\u00e9actualis\u00e9 quotidiennement<\/a><\/p>\n

>>> Notre compte Twitter tr\u00e8s suivi et r\u00e9f\u00e9rence dans tous les m\u00e9dias !<\/a><\/p>\n

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Auteur : Alexandre Slowik<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u00e9t\u00e9o\u00a0 Republi\u00e9 via Innoreader Lire la Suite Un nouveau blocage anticyclonique se met en place sur la France avec le d\u00e9but d’une \u00e9ni\u00e8me p\u00e9riode tr\u00e8s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9153,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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