{"id":3572,"date":"2025-06-16T16:57:29","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T14:57:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/meteo-sain-bel.fr\/wp\/blog\/on-16-juin-2025-at-14h57-canicule-ou-simple-vague-de-chaleur-dans-les-prochains-jours\/"},"modified":"2025-06-16T16:57:29","modified_gmt":"2025-06-16T14:57:29","slug":"on-16-juin-2025-at-14h57-canicule-ou-simple-vague-de-chaleur-dans-les-prochains-jours","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/meteo-sain-bel.fr\/wp\/blog\/on-16-juin-2025-at-14h57-canicule-ou-simple-vague-de-chaleur-dans-les-prochains-jours\/","title":{"rendered":"on 16 juin 2025 at 14h57 Canicule ou simple vague de chaleur dans les prochains jours ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u00e9t\u00e9o\u00a0 Republi\u00e9 via Innoreader Read More<\/a><\/p>\n

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Les anomalies de temp\u00e9ratures s’annoncent tr\u00e8s importantes en fin de semaine sur la France avec des valeurs parfois situ\u00e9es 15\u00b0C au-dessus des normales !\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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Retour d’un temps calme et de plus en plus chaud cette semaine<\/h2>\n

Apr\u00e8s un week-end tr\u00e8s instable sur de nombreuses r\u00e9gions, les hautes pressions font leur retour par l’Atlantique cette semaine, assurant le retour d’un temps calme, sec et g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement ensoleill\u00e9 sur la France, et ce au moins jusqu’au week-end.<\/p>\n

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Animation des g\u00e9opotentiels sur l’Europe du 16 au 22 juin 2025 <\/strong><\/em>\u2013 Mod\u00e8le GFS via WX CHARTS<\/p>\n

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Dans le m\u00eame temps, le flux va de nouveau basculer en altitude sur notre pays. Apr\u00e8s un l\u00e9ger rafra\u00eechissement li\u00e9 \u00e0 l’intrusion temporaire d’air oc\u00e9anique en ce d\u00e9but de semaine, le flux va en effet de nouveau basculer au sud\/sud-ouest en altitude, faisant remonter de l’air chaud \u00e0 tr\u00e8s chaud venu du nord de l’Afrique vers la France.<\/p>\n

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Animation des temp\u00e9ratures \u00e0 850 hPa sur l’Europe du 16 au 22 juin 2025 <\/strong><\/em>\u2013 Mod\u00e8le GFS via WX CHARTS<\/p>\n

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Ainsi, la chaleur va de nouveau s’accentuer dans les prochains jours, et ce sur la totalit\u00e9 de la France avec des maximales repassant assez largement au-dessus des normales de la p\u00e9riode d\u00e8s le milieu de semaine.<\/p>\n

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Animation des anomalies de temp\u00e9ratures \u00e0 2m sur l’Europe du 16 au 22 juin 2025 <\/strong><\/em>\u2013 Via TropicalTidBits<\/p>\n

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Contrairement \u00e0 la semaine pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente o\u00f9 l’intrusion d’air oc\u00e9anique par l’Atlantique a entra\u00een\u00e9 une baisse des temp\u00e9ratures d\u00e8s le milieu de semaine sur l’ouest du pays, baisse qui s’est ensuite propag\u00e9e plus \u00e0 l’est durant le week-end, la chaleur s’annonce bien plus durable pour cette semaine du 16 au 22 juin, s’accentuant peu \u00e0 d’ici la fin de semaine.<\/p>\n

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\u00c9volution des temp\u00e9ratures maximales sur la France du 17 au 22 juin 2025<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 M\u00e9t\u00e9o-Villes<\/p>\n

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Nous rentrerons ainsi dans les crit\u00e8res d’une v\u00e9ritable vague de chaleur sur la France avec une chaleur parfois tr\u00e8s marqu\u00e9e pour la p\u00e9riode mais se montrant surtout plus durable que les coups de chaud pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents.<\/p>\n

Le seuil de canicule pourra \u00e9galement \u00eatre atteint en fin de semaine sur certaines r\u00e9gions, notamment entre l’ouest et le sud. Les temp\u00e9ratures atteindront en effet les seuils de jour comme de nuit durant 3 jours et 3 nuits cons\u00e9cutifs sur certains d\u00e9partements en seconde partie de semaine, une situation qu’il conviendra de surveiller.<\/p>\n

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Seuils d’activation de la vigilance canicule en France <\/strong><\/em>– VisActu<\/p>\n

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Encore quelques incertitudes<\/h2>\n

Si les principaux mod\u00e8les de pr\u00e9visions sont tous d’accord sur le retour de la chaleur et de son accentuation d’ici la fin de semaine, la fin du week-end et la semaine suivante sont un peu plus incertains.<\/p>\n

En effet, si le mod\u00e8le am\u00e9ricain GFS entrevoit un pic de chaleur entre vendredi et dimanche, certains d\u00e9partements atteignant m\u00eame temporairement les seuils caniculaires, les temp\u00e9ratures pourraient repartir \u00e0 la baisse d\u00e8s la fin du week-end sur l’ouest du pays avec une nouvelle intrusion d’air plus oc\u00e9anique par l’Atlantique (ce qui nous apporterait d’ailleurs de nouveau des orages). Cette baisse des temp\u00e9ratures se poursuivrait et s’accentuerait d’ailleurs en d\u00e9but de semaine suivante selon ce sc\u00e9nario, mettant fin \u00e0 cette vague de chaleur notable.<\/p>\n

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\u00c9volution des temp\u00e9ratures \u00e0 850 hPa entre le 20 et le 25 juin 2025 selon le sc\u00e9nario du mod\u00e8le GFS<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Via WX CHARTS<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

N\u00e9anmoins, ce m\u00eame mod\u00e8le est tr\u00e8s ind\u00e9cis dans ses derni\u00e8res r\u00e9actualisations, oscillant entre sc\u00e9narios instables et “rafra\u00eechis” pour le d\u00e9but de semaine suivante et sc\u00e9narios bien plus chauds et caniculaires pour le d\u00e9but de semaine prochaine.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Comparaison de diff\u00e9rents sc\u00e9narios du mod\u00e8le GFS pour le d\u00e9but de semaine du 23 au 29 juin 2025<\/strong><\/em> – Via WX CHARTS<\/p>\n

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Le mod\u00e8le europ\u00e9en rejoint d’ailleurs le sc\u00e9nario tr\u00e8s chaud du mod\u00e8le GFS pour cette \u00e9ch\u00e9ance. Si la chaleur, tout aussi intense que sur le mod\u00e8le am\u00e9ricain, est \u00e9galement mod\u00e9lis\u00e9e sur la majorit\u00e9 du pays en seconde partie de semaine, celle-ci pourrait perdurer jusqu’en milieu de semaine prochaine.<\/p>\n

En effet, le mod\u00e8le europ\u00e9en entrevoit l’isolation d’une goutte froide sur l’Atlantique entre ce week-end et le d\u00e9but de semaine suivante, ce qui maintiendrait la “pompe \u00e0 chaleur” sur notre pays au moins jusqu’en milieu de semaine prochaine. Ainsi, sur ce mod\u00e8le, une v\u00e9ritable canicule se mettrait ainsi en place sur la majorit\u00e9 du pays entre la fin de cette semaine et le milieu de semaine suivante, un \u00e9v\u00e8nement qui reste\u00a0 exceptionnel en cette p\u00e9riode de l’ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

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\u00c9volution de la situation entre le 21 et le 24 juin 2025 selon le sc\u00e9narios du mod\u00e8le GFS \u2013<\/em><\/strong> Via WX CHARTS<\/p>\n

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Il est pour le moment difficile de savoir quel sc\u00e9nario deviendra majoritaire d’ici l\u00e0 et il sera ainsi important de suivre l’\u00e9volution des pr\u00e9visions dans les prochains jours.\u00a0Si une vague de chaleur est d\u00e9j\u00e0 assur\u00e9e cette semaine, il conviendra \u00e9galement de surveiller le risque de canicule g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e et durable jusqu’\u00e0 la semaine suivante si le sc\u00e9nario tr\u00e8s chaud devient v\u00e9ritablement majoritaire.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 suivre dans notre bulletin quotidien >>\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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\"\"\"\"<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u00e9t\u00e9o\u00a0 Republi\u00e9 via Innoreader Read More Les anomalies de temp\u00e9ratures s’annoncent tr\u00e8s importantes en fin de semaine sur la France avec des valeurs parfois situ\u00e9es […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3573,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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