{"id":1008,"date":"2024-08-16T17:20:09","date_gmt":"2024-08-16T15:20:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/meteo-sain-bel.fr\/wp\/blog\/le-16-aout-2024-a-15h20-deja-la-fin-de-lete\/"},"modified":"2024-08-16T17:20:09","modified_gmt":"2024-08-16T15:20:09","slug":"le-16-aout-2024-a-15h20-deja-la-fin-de-lete","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/meteo-sain-bel.fr\/wp\/blog\/le-16-aout-2024-a-15h20-deja-la-fin-de-lete\/","title":{"rendered":"le 16 ao\u00fbt 2024 \u00e0 15h20 D\u00e9j\u00e0 la fin de l’\u00e9t\u00e9 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u00e9t\u00e9o\u00a0 Republi\u00e9 via Innoreader Read More<\/a><\/p>\n

Des temp\u00e9ratures en baisse en cette mi-ao\u00fbt\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Apr\u00e8s une fin de mois de juillet et une premi\u00e8re d\u00e9cade d’ao\u00fbt tr\u00e8s estivale, parfois tr\u00e8s chaude avec la survenue de deux p\u00e9riodes caniculaires successives, l’\u00e9t\u00e9 semble de nouveau s’\u00e9loigner en cette mi-ao\u00fbt avec la reprise de l’influence oc\u00e9anique sur une large partie de la France, notamment sur le Nord du pays.<\/p>\n

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Animation des temp\u00e9ratures \u00e0 850 hPa sur l’Europe du 16 au 22 ao\u00fbt 2024<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Mod\u00e8le GFS via WX CHARTS<\/p>\n

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Ainsi, les temp\u00e9ratures repasseront de nouveau sous les normales de saison pour les prochains jours sur de nombreuses r\u00e9gions, la chaleur estivale se cantonnant plut\u00f4t au Sud-Est du pays d’ici la semaine prochaine, chose normale dans ce type d’influence oc\u00e9anique.<\/p>\n

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Animation des anomalies de temp\u00e9ratures \u00e0 2m sur l’Europe du 16 au 22 ao\u00fbt 2024 <\/strong><\/em>– Via TropicalTidBits<\/p>\n

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Il n’est cependant pas rare que les temp\u00e9ratures repartent \u00e0 la baisse durant cette p\u00e9riode de l’ann\u00e9e. En effet, la climatologie montre que les temp\u00e9ratures moyennes en France entament une baisse assez nette \u00e0 partir de la mi-ao\u00fbt et ce apr\u00e8s avoir atteint un pic aux alentours de la fin du mois de juillet. Cette baisse se poursuit ensuite jusqu’\u00e0 la fin de l’ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00c9volution des temp\u00e9ratures moyennes en France tout au long de l’ann\u00e9e <\/strong><\/em>\u2013 Via infoclimat.fr<\/p>\n

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Cela ne veut toutefois pas dire que l’\u00e9t\u00e9 est v\u00e9ritablement termin\u00e9 d\u00e8s la mi-ao\u00fbt en France. Ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es ont en effet prouv\u00e9 que des vagues de chaleur voire des canicules parfois marqu\u00e9es \u00e9taient encore possibles jusqu’au mois de septembre. L’ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re par exemple, la chaleur s’\u00e9tait au contraire accentu\u00e9e \u00e0 partir de la mi-ao\u00fbt avec m\u00eame la vague de chaleur tardive la plus intense jamais observ\u00e9e sur le pays entre le 18 et le 24 ao\u00fbt. D’autres vagues de chaleur avaient d’ailleurs concern\u00e9 la France jusqu’au mois d’octobre\u00a0!<\/p>\n

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<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00c9volution de l’indicateur thermique national en France durant l’ann\u00e9e 2023 <\/strong><\/em>\u2013 Via infoclimat.fr<\/p>\n

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Ainsi, m\u00eame si les temp\u00e9ratures moyennes ont tendance \u00e0 baisser \u00e0 partir de la mi-ao\u00fbt en raison de la baisse de la dur\u00e9e du jour et d’un courant oc\u00e9anique ayant tendance \u00e0 se propager plus facilement vers le Sud et donc vers la France, des vagues de chaleur parfois intenses restent possibles au moins jusqu’au mois de septembre.<\/p>\n

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Ces coups de chaleurs tardifs sont notamment observ\u00e9s lorsque des (ex)cyclones tropicaux viennent s’isoler sur le proche Atlantique, faisant basculer le flux au Sud\/Sud-Ouest en altitude et faisant ainsi remonter des masses d’air parfois tr\u00e8s chaudes de l’Afrique du Nord vers l’Ouest de l’Europe et la France. Ce type de situation devient ensuite plus rare au fur et \u00e0 mesure que l’automne s’installe v\u00e9ritablement.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Comparaison d’une situation normale pour la fin du mois d’ao\u00fbt et d’une situation de pompe \u00e0 chaleur li\u00e9e \u00e0 l’isolement des restes d’un cyclone sur l’Atlantique<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 M\u00e9t\u00e9o-Villes<\/p>\n

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Qu’en est-il de cette ann\u00e9e\u00a0?<\/h2>\n

La mi-ao\u00fbt 2024 correspond donc effectivement avec une baisse des temp\u00e9ratures sur notre pays apr\u00e8s une premi\u00e8re d\u00e9cade d’ao\u00fbt parfois excessivement chaude. Le week-end s’annonce ainsi parfois assez frais pour la p\u00e9riode, d’abord sur l’Ouest et le Nord-Ouest samedi puis sur les \u00be de la France dimanche. Seul le Sud-Est de la France devrait conserver une chaleur estivale.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Temp\u00e9ratures maximales sur la France pour les 17 et 18 ao\u00fbt 2024<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 M\u00e9t\u00e9o-Villes<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

L’influence oc\u00e9anique devrait ensuite persister au moins une partie de la semaine prochaine sur notre pays avec des temp\u00e9ratures parfois assez fra\u00eeches pour la p\u00e9riode, notamment en d\u00e9but de semaine sur l’Ouest et jusqu’en milieu\/fin de semaine sur le Nord. Le Sud-Est devrait conserver une chaleur plus nette, pouvant s’accentuer plus franchement en seconde partie de semaine.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Anomalies de temp\u00e9ratures \u00e0 2m sur l’Europe pour la semaine du 19 au 24 ao\u00fbt 2024 <\/strong><\/em>\u2013 ECMWF<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Les principaux mod\u00e8les de pr\u00e9vision font toutefois \u00e9tat du retour d’une chaleur plus estivale sur la majorit\u00e9 de la France pour la fin de semaine, plus marqu\u00e9e sur la moiti\u00e9 Sud. L’extr\u00eame Nord du pays pourrait conserver un temps un peu plus frais sous une influence faiblement oc\u00e9anique.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Situation envisag\u00e9e pour le 24 ao\u00fbt 2024 sur l’Europe<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 Mod\u00e8le GFS via WX CHARTS<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ainsi, la fin de la semaine prochaine et la semaine suivante pourraient s’av\u00e9rer bien plus estivales sur la majorit\u00e9 de la France avec le retour d’une chaleur plus marqu\u00e9e sur la quasi-totalit\u00e9 du pays, se montrant plus marqu\u00e9e et durable au Sud.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Anomalies de temp\u00e9ratures \u00e0 2m sur l’Europe pour la semaine du 25 ao\u00fbt au 1er septembre 2024<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 ECMWF<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Il est pour le moment difficile de dire si une nouvelle p\u00e9riode caniculaire tardive se mettra en place ou non durant ce laps de temps mais il semble assur\u00e9 que la chaleur reprendra de nouveau le dessus pour la fin du mois d’ao\u00fbt sur la quasi-totalit\u00e9 de la France, notamment sur le Sud o\u00f9 celle-ci se montrera plus marqu\u00e9e. L’\u00e9t\u00e9 n’a donc pas encore dit son dernier mot.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u00e9t\u00e9o\u00a0 Republi\u00e9 via Innoreader Read More Des temp\u00e9ratures en baisse en cette mi-ao\u00fbt\u00a0 Apr\u00e8s une fin de mois de juillet et une premi\u00e8re d\u00e9cade d’ao\u00fbt 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